Bench to the Future 3 — Binary
Forecasting · 2026-06-29
The binary component of BTF-3 contains 1,515 resolved forecasting questions researched against a frozen web corpus. Forecast probabilities are evaluated by mean Brier score, so lower scores are better.
Top models (lower is better)
| Model | Score |
|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 0.1 |
| Opus 4.8 | 0.1 |
| Claude Fable 5 | 0.1 |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 0.1 |
| GPT-5.5 | 0.1 |
| Sonnet 5 | 0.2 |