Bench to the Future 2 — Refinement
Forecasting · 2026-04-20
The refinement component of the BTF-2 Brier decomposition measures how decisively forecasts separate questions with different outcomes. Higher refinement is better.
Top models (higher is better)
| Model | Score |
|---|---|
| Opus 4.6 | 0.1 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview | 0.1 |
| GPT-5.4 | 0.1 |
| Grok 4.20 | 0.0 |